Steve Kornacki is not an economist. He is a tv talking head who covers election results. That has nothing to do with most top economists are predicting a recession.Steve Kornacki walked through it on the NBC big board right after the election. You can YouTube it.I don't believe it is true that negative gdp growth for the first half of 2025 has been forecast for several months by top economists.
Hot Sauce, can you provide backup for your claim which I rate as false?
I then asked that question of perplexity and it was in accord with my belief.
How reliable are the GDPNow tracker predictions for the first quarter of 2025? perplexity answer -
Link - https://www.perplexity.ai/search/has-a- ... 0_EI2jxQMg
BobK
If you have a YouTube result from last November that shows most top economists are predicting a recession in the first half of 2025 give us the link.
Let me repeat the part of the perplexity quote you left out.
No, a negative GDP growth for the first half of 2025 has not been consistently forecast by several top economists for several months. In fact, recent forecasts have been generally positive, with expectations of continued growth, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker recently indicated a potential contraction of 1.5% for the first quarter of 2025, which is a significant downward revision from earlier projections1. However, this is a preliminary estimate based on recent data and is known for its volatility, often becoming more reliable later in the quarter. Other economic forecasts paint a more optimistic picture:
Goldman Sachs Research projects 2.5% GDP growth for the US in 2025, which is above the consensus forecast of 1.9%3.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts positive growth for all quarters of 2025, with Q1 growth estimated at 2.5%.
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group maintains its GDP outlook at 2.2% for 2025.
Deloitte's baseline forecast shows real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025.
While there are some concerns about economic headwinds, such as potential trade tensions and policy uncertainties, the overall consensus among economists appears to be for continued growth in 2025, rather than a prolonged period of negative GDP growth.
BobK
Statistics: Posted by bobcat2 — Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:46 pm