The 20/20 vision that hindsight provides suggests avoiding all bonds/fixed income and staying 100% stocks would have been the right move.I have no comment on hypothetical timelines.
Lot's of people/portfolios hold a cash position forever at likely larger long term negative real yields, is that in your parlance "math impaired"?
Is it unthinkable that equities could average less than -1% real a year for twenty years?
At the end of 2020, what if big and little pharma announced no efficacy for their vaccines that were largely developed using what to that point had been unproven technology, I'm guessing that would mean bye-bye equity rally.
What is true is that there were times in the thread that buying long bonds was at known negative real yields at that time.
To your invocation of Bernstein and Shakespeare, Bernstein himself said he wouldn't buy negative real yield bonds / TIPS when those conditions exist.
Alas, we are not supposed to try to time markets, both the equity and bond markets, but you and many others on this board seem to think this is a winning strategy for the bond markets. Is there a good way to short LTT? You could have made a killing if you were certain things would play out as they did. Good luck going forward!
Statistics: Posted by slicendice — Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:23 pm