Non-US Investing • Re: Maybe I need to retire, but can I? [US, Canada]

Thanks!

I have just checked the stocks part used in the simulation posted by OP in their first post

It says: "Stock are represented by large cap US index funds (S&P 500)." (bonds is 10y US bond)

Which means that OP simulation is assuming roughly 6% real for stocks, a very optimistic scenario nowadays

I cheated.

I used 35% stock / 65% bonds to emulate the closest I could to get a 7% nominal. As mentionned, I expect something like 7% nominal, 3% inflation + 4% real return.

I played entensively with ficalc.app cfiresim, firecalc and portfoliovizualizer. These last two allow to fine-tweak a portfolio. PFV now back-tests only in a limited time in its free version, since a few months.

I used in my PFV simulation over 25 years
25% US Large Value Cap
5% US Large Growth Cap
55% Ex-US developped markets
15% Short -term treasury

7% nominal stands between 25th-50th percentile

The Monte Carlo simulators typically assume a fixed withdrawal from the portfolio (say 3% real).

In my PFV simulation above (Monte Carlo), I used "Withdraw Fixed Percentage Periodically", 1.4% every quarter.

Statistics: Posted by jg12345 — Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:14 pm